236 Grass Valley Rd

Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352 · Arrowhead Woods

COMPARATIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

Prepared September 25, 2026 | Prepared by Frank Sottile, RE/MAX Lakeside

This analysis prices 236 Grass Valley Rd as it sits today — a large 3,775 sf home on a busy street that needs exterior paint and a full interior remodel. It's built on MLS comps: three recent closed sales with their actual concessions, and three active listings that show exactly what today's buyers will and won't pay.

Inside, you'll find:

Three MLS closings, netted for real seller concessions
Honest street and full-remodel condition adjustments, in dollars
The renovated same-size listing that's been stuck for nine months
A defensible as-is range built for a motivated, time-sensitive sale

The headline: updated homes this size are closing in the $700,000s to low $800,000s, and a renovated near-twin right off Grass Valley has sat nine months at $775,000 after a $100,000 cut. Take that reality, adjust down for a full remodel, and this home lands near a $685,000 as-is target — below the $799,100 Zestimate, which assumes average condition.

If you'd like to walk the numbers or talk timing on a fast, clean sale, I'm always happy to help.

Frank Sottile

Broker Associate | RE/MAX Lakeside | DRE #00900300

Frank Sottile

Broker Associate
RE/MAX Lakeside

"Focused on what matters most,you and your family."

Frank Sottile | RE/MAX Lakeside
760-952-0019 · sottilerealestate@gmail.com · www.franksottile.realtor
DRE #00900300 | Pricing reflects current market conditions and is subject to change.

236 Grass Valley Rd | Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352PROPERTY PROFILE + MARKET CONTEXT

Property at a Glance

4

Bedrooms

Subject

6

Baths

4 full · 2 half

3,775

Living Area

Sq Ft

1971

Year Built

3 levels

3-Car

Garage

12,050 sf lot

Fixer

Condition

Full remodel needed

Arrowhead Woods, with lake rights. Interior lot on Grass Valley Rd, a busy through-street — no lake view, not lakefront. Home needs exterior paint and a full interior remodel (kitchen, baths, flooring, systems). Circular drive, beamed and cathedral ceilings, finished lower level. A time-sensitive, as-is sale.

★ The Closed Comps Set the Number. Three MLS sales tell the story: 888 Talisman (updated, 3,012 sf) closed $840,000 with no concession; 422 Klamath (updated, 3,060 sf) closed $700,000 with $17,500 in credits; 27801 St Bernard (renovated 5-bed, 4,016 sf) closed $1,058,000 with $28,700 in credits. Those are finished homes. Adjust the cleanest of them for this home's full-remodel condition and the number lands in the mid-$600,000s.

⚠ A Renovated Near-Twin Is Stuck at $775,000. 174 Golf Course Rd — same 3,800 sf, renovated, right off Grass Valley — has sat ~9 months and was cut from $875,000 to $775,000, still unsold. If a finished version of this house isn't clearing at $775K, a full-remodel fixer has to price meaningfully below it. The Zestimate of $799,100 assumes average condition and reads high here.

$666,250

Median Sale (92352)

Redfin · −2.4% YoY

~106 days

Median Days on Market

Buyer's market

~96%

Sale-to-List Ratio

Homes sell under list

Two Adjustments Do the Heavy Lifting: Street and Work NeededGrass Valley Rd is a through-street with steady traffic, a real discount against interior-lot and cul-de-sac sales. And a full interior remodel on 3,775 sf is a six-figure project a buyer prices in before writing an offer. Together they move the number well below the finished comps and the Zestimate — and they're the whole reason this report exists.

The Active Listings Confirm the CeilingAll three actives are reduced and still sitting: Golf Course cut $100K to $775K (renovated, same size), North Bay cut to $979K (renovated, busy street), Hillcrest cut to $849,500. Buyers are not reaching for these numbers. That tells you the as-is price has to be sharp to draw a serious offer, not optimistic.

A Soft Market and a Clock Reward CertaintyValues are down 2.4% to 6.4% year over year, homes sit ~106 days, and buyers negotiate ~4% under list. For a time-sensitive, as-is sale, the winning move is a clean price that pulls the cash and renovation-buyer pool in early — not a number that ages on the market while the clock runs.

236 Grass Valley Rd | Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352COMPARABLE SALES + VALUATION

Comparable Sales — MLS (Arrowhead Woods & nearby)

Address	Status	Price	Concess.	Bd/Ba	SqFt	$/SF	Adj. to Subj.
Closed — the anchors
888 Talisman BEST COMP	Closed 8/4/26	$840,000	$0	4/2.5	3,012	$279	$736,000
422 Klamath	Closed 8/21/26	$700,000	$17,500	4/2.5	3,060	$229	$581,000
27801 St Bernard SUPERIOR	Closed 8/6/26	$1,058,000	$28,700	5/5	4,016	$263	$736,000*
Active — the competition / ceiling
174 Golf Course STUCK 9 MO	Active ↓$775K	from $875K	—	4/3.5	3,825	$203	Renovated twin
28001 North Bay	Active ↓$979K	from $1.10M	—	4/3.5	3,554	$275	Reno, busy st.
26461 Hillcrest	Active ↓$849.5K	from $998K	—	4/3.5	3,251	$261	Cul-de-sac
236 Grass Valley SUBJECT	As-is target	$685,000	—	4/6	3,775	$181	$685,000

*St Bernard is a renovated 5-bed with ridgeline views — condition/view adjustments exceed 15%, so it's shown as a ceiling, not used to set target. Klamath sits in Arrowhead Villas (a step below Arrowhead Woods) and drags low. Talisman is the cleanest analog: updated, similar era, netted to $736,000 adjusted to the subject before market/timeline. Comps are MLS (agent-provided); concessions shown as disclosed. County assessor lists 5,483 sf gross vs 3,775 sf living — confirm measured area, as it moves value.

How the Value Is Set

$736,000

Comp-Adjusted (priced right)

Talisman, netted & adjusted

− ~7%

Market + Timeline + As-Is

Soft mkt, motivated sale

$685,000

Target Value, As-Is

$181/sf · 3,775 sf

$775,000

Renovated Twin, Unsold

174 Golf Course · 9 mo

Anchor math: Talisman $840,000 +$57K size +$19K extra baths +$10K garage +$5K lot −$175K condition (full remodel) −$20K street ≈ $736,000, then −~7% for a declining market, a time-sensitive sale, and net-of-concession reality ≈ $685,000.

Strengths

Scale. 3,775 sf, 4 beds, 6 baths, 3-car garage on a 12,050 sf lot — more square footage than every closed comp, and the market pays for size.
Arrowhead Woods lake rights. The association's lake privileges travel with the home — a durable draw even without a view.
Remodel upside. Good bones and a finished lower level give a renovation buyer real equity to create — exactly the buyer this price targets.

Risks / Offsets

Full remodel needed. Kitchen, baths, flooring, systems, plus exterior paint — a six-figure project buyers price in up front. The single largest adjustment.
Busy street. Grass Valley Rd traffic caps the buyer pool and discounts against interior-lot and cul-de-sac comps like Hillcrest.
A market that's already saying no. Every active is reduced and sitting; the renovated twin is stuck at $775K. Sharp pricing, not optimism, moves this home.

236 Grass Valley Rd | Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352SUGGESTED LIST PRICE + NEXT STEPS

Suggested List Price

Target: Cleanest updated comp $840,000 → adjust for full remodel & soft market → $685,000 as-is

Priced to the cash / renovation-buyer pool that actually transacts on as-is homes in a slowing market.

Aggressive Sell — Move It

$625,000

The certainty number. Sits near the market median and speaks straight to investors and renovation buyers who pay cash and close fast. Best fit when a clean, quick, time-sensitive sale outweighs squeezing the last dollar.

Target — Best Balance

$685,000

Anchored to the cleanest updated closing, adjusted for a full remodel and a softening market. Defensible, draws the right buyers, and expects roughly 60–120 days at ~96% of list. The number this report recommends.

Optimistic — Test It

$699,000

Reachable only if the home shows better than expected or a buyer will finance the remodel. Watch days-on-market closely — if there's no serious offer in the first few weeks, reduce toward target before the market does it for you.

Note on Concessions: The MLS shows credits are common at this level — Klamath gave $17,500 (plus $50,000 for furniture outside escrow) and St Bernard $28,700; Talisman gave none. Expect a buyer credit request on an as-is home and price with that in mind. One open item: the assessor shows 5,483 sf gross vs 3,775 sf living — confirming the true measured, permitted area could move this range up.

Priced for a clean, certain sale.

Given the condition and the timeline, the goal here isn't to chase the top of the market — it's to hit a number that pulls a serious, ready buyer in early and closes without drama. This CMA gives you the honest floor and ceiling, straight from the MLS, so you can decide how hard to lean on speed versus price. When you're ready to set the number, I'll build the listing and marketing around it.

"Focused on what matters most, you and your family."

Ready to price and list 236 Grass Valley?

Frank Sottile · Broker Associate · RE/MAX Lakeside

Call 760-952-0019 Email Frank

Comparable data is from the MLS (agent-provided) and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed; buyer to verify sold prices, concessions, and living area in the MLS and public records. This CMA is not an appraisal or an offer to buy or sell. Pricing reflects current market conditions and is subject to change.