27751 Peninsula Dr #302

Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352 · Meadow Bay North

COMPARATIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

Prepared September 21, 2026 | Prepared by Frank Sottile, RE/MAX Lakeside

This analysis values 27751 Peninsula Dr #302 using only sales and listings inside Meadow Bay North — the most accurate way to price a unit in a distinct condo community, where the complex itself sets the market.

Inside, you'll find:

Every recent Meadow Bay North comp — closed and active
Your unit measured against the identical-size sale in the complex
The special assessment and concession pattern shaping today's prices
A defensible list-price range grounded in what is actually closing

The headline: units in this complex are closing in the high-$300s to low-$400s, and the identical-size 2-bedroom just sold for $390,000. This report shows exactly where #302 fits, and why.

If you'd like to walk through the numbers or talk strategy for this market, I'm always happy to help.

Frank Sottile

Broker Associate | RE/MAX Lakeside | DRE #00900300

Frank Sottile

Broker Associate
RE/MAX Lakeside

"Focused on what matters most,you and your family."

Frank Sottile | RE/MAX Lakeside
760-952-0019 · sottilerealestate@gmail.com · www.franksottile.realtor
DRE #00900300 | Pricing reflects current market conditions and is subject to change.

27751 Peninsula Dr #302 | Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352PROPERTY PROFILE + COMPLEX CONTEXT

Property at a Glance

2

Bedrooms

Subject

1

Bath

Full

1,196

Living Area

Sq Ft

1972

Year Built

Townhouse

2

Levels

No garage

Good

Condition

Move-in ready

Meadow Bay North. Gated planned development on the shores of Lake Arrowhead with a private residents' beach, dock slips (available for extra), and 17-acre grounds. HOA covers exterior maintenance, snow removal, and trash. Short-term rentals allowed (6-night minimum) — a real income draw.

★ Key Finding — The Identical-Size Unit Just Sold for $390,000. 27657 #131 is a 2-bed, same 1,196 sf, same complex, and it closed 5/22/26 at $390,000 (with $7,800 in concessions). It was fully remodeled; #302 is 2/1 in good condition, so it adjusts just under to a $385,000 target.

⚠ The $516,000 List Expired — Here's Why. Nothing in Meadow Bay North has closed above $415,000, and that was a larger 4-bedroom. At $431/sf, the prior list sat roughly $131,000 above what the complex is actually clearing. The comps below set the real number.

$390K–$415K

Recent Closed Range

Meadow Bay North · 2026

$22,500

Special Assessment

+ ~$625/mo for ~3 yrs

$7,800–$12,450

Concessions on Sales

Credits buyers received

Price to the Complex, Not the MountainA distinct condo community sets its own market. Buyers shopping Meadow Bay North compare unit to unit, so #302 is valued only against other units here — not against detached homes or other Lake Arrowhead neighborhoods. That's why this CMA uses in-complex comps exclusively, exactly as requested.

The Special Assessment Is the OverhangEvery unit carries a $22,500 special assessment (about $625/month for roughly three years) to replenish reserves and fund exterior work. Buyers price this in, which is why both recent sales closed with sizable seller concessions. Expect a credit request, and price with that in mind.

What It Means for #302The identical-size 2-bed closed at $390,000 fully remodeled; a larger 4-bed closed at $415,000. #302 — 2/1, same 1,196 sf, good condition — lands at $385,000, comfortably inside the complex's proven range and far below the expired $516,000. The active listings ($399K–$500K) are all reduced and still sitting, confirming the ceiling.

27751 Peninsula Dr #302 | Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352COMPARABLE SALES + VALUATION

Comparable Sales — Meadow Bay North Only

Unit	Status	List	Close	Bd/Ba	SqFt	$/SF	Concess.	Read
27657 #131 BEST COMP	Closed 5/26	$399,000	$390,000	2/1.5	1,196	$326	$7,800	Identical size
27657 #110 LARGER	Closed 6/26	$510,000	$415,000	4/2	1,750	$237	$12,450	4-bed end unit
27821 #315 ACTIVE	Active	$399,000	—	2/2	1,066	$374	—	Reduced fr. $425K
27657 #130 ACTIVE	Active	$499,999	—	3/2	1,306	$383	—	Reduced fr. $599,900
27751 #302 SUBJECT	Expired	$516,000	—	2/1	1,196	$431	—	Target $385,000

BEST COMP = 27657 #131: same complex, same 1,196 sf, 2-bed, closed $390,000 (remodeled). Subject is 2/1, good condition, adjusts just under. Both recent sales closed with concessions — budget for a buyer credit. Active listings are reduced and still on market, confirming the ceiling. Source: agent-provided MLS (Meadow Bay North). Buyer to verify.

How the Value Is Set

$390,000

Identical-Size Sale

#131, 1,196 sf, remodeled

− $5K · − $10K

Adjust #302

Half-bath + condition

$385,000

Target Value

2/1, good, 1,196 sf

$516,000

Prior List (Expired)

~$131K over market

Strengths

Identical-size anchor. The same 1,196 sf 2-bed in this complex just sold for $390,000 — a clean, current, apples-to-apples benchmark.
Meadow Bay North amenities. Private gated beach, dock slips, 17-acre grounds, HOA covering exterior/snow/trash — the draw that keeps this complex desirable.
Short-term rentals allowed (6-night min) with strong summer demand — real income upside for the right buyer.

Risks / Offsets

$22,500 special assessment (+~$625/mo, ~3 yrs). The biggest buyer objection — expect a concession request; recent sales gave $7,800–$12,450.
One full bath. The closed comps carry 1.5–2 baths; #302's single bath is a modest discount.
Soft, slow market for these units. Both active listings are heavily reduced and still sitting — pricing discipline matters.

27751 Peninsula Dr #302 | Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352SUGGESTED LIST PRICE + NEXT STEPS

Suggested List Price

Target: Identical-size #131 sold $390,000 → adjust for 2/1 + condition → $385,000

Every comp is inside Meadow Bay North. Recent sales closed with concessions; budget for a buyer credit on the assessment.

Aggressive Sell — Move It

$369,000

Prices to the net-of-concession reality and competes directly with the reduced active listings. The number that draws offers fast in a slow, assessment-burdened market. Best fit if a clean, quick sale is the priority.

Target — Best Outcome

$385,000

Anchored to the identical-size #131 sale ($390,000), adjusted down slightly for the single bath and good-vs-remodeled condition. Credible, defensible, and inside the complex's proven $390K–$415K closed range. Expect a concession conversation.

Optimistic — Test It

$399,000

Matches the active 2-bed #315 list. Reachable only if #302 shows exceptionally well and a buyer is comfortable absorbing the assessment. Watch days-on-market — reduce toward target if there's no serious offer in the first few weeks.

Note on Concessions & the Assessment: Both recent Meadow Bay North sales closed with seller concessions ($7,800 and $12,450) tied to the $22,500 special assessment. Price the unit knowing a credit request is likely, and consider addressing the assessment up front in the listing to remove the objection before it costs you at the table.

Not ready to list? That is completely fine.

This CMA is yours to keep. It values #302 against the only comps that truly matter — the other units in your own complex — so you know exactly where you stand. There's no timeline you have to follow. When you're ready to talk strategy, pricing, or how to handle the assessment, I'm just a call away.

"Focused on what matters most, you and your family."

Thinking about selling #302?

Frank Sottile · Broker Associate · RE/MAX Lakeside

Call 760-952-0019 Email Frank

Comparable data is agent-provided from the MLS (Meadow Bay North) and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed; buyer to verify. This CMA is not an appraisal or an offer to buy or sell. Pricing reflects current market conditions and is subject to change.